Who have more chances of winning 2019 Lok Sabha elections?



National Democratic Government (NDA) led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 353 seats among 545 seats in Lok Sabha and hence formed the government again. BJP alone could able to get a majority on its own, it could able to secure more than 273 seats, which is a requirement to form the government. Election results were declared on 23rd May 2019.

BJP and its allies:-

  • In Favor:-
    • The popularity of our Prime minister Narendra Modi. Many polls and surveys revealed that Narendra Modi is the most beloved leader of present India. Modi has fans from all over the world.
    • Modi-led government raised our country’s status in the world. During the NDA rule, India improved bilateral relations with many powerful countries.
    • There is no strong opposition to the NDA government yet.
    • There are many wonderful schemes and programs that are launched and implemented by NDA government like Make in India, Swachch Bharath, Digital India etc.
    • Many positive results were seen in NDA rule such as improvement in the ease of doing business, boost to startups, the rise of cashless economy etc.
  • Against:-
    • Recently Telugu Desham Party (TDP) exited NDA (National Democratic Alliance) [NDA is the name for coalition of BJP and its allies]. TDP was the major ally in south India for BJP. Some other regional parties – SBSP, BJDS are also planning to withdraw from NDA. If this process is also followed by other strong allies, it will be a big blow to BJP.
    • Failure of Demonetization. This can be evident from the recent RBI annual report. Along with that, common people suffered a lot during the demonetization move. This resulted in the angst of some people.
    • According to domestic and international media, intolerance in India towards minorities after BJP came into power.
    • BJP lost in the by-elections in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, that was conducted in 2017 & 18. It also got lesser votes in Gujarat by-elections when compared with the number of votes it got in 2014 Lok sabha elections.
    • Unemployment problem is not solved during NDA rule.
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Congress and its allies:-

  • In Favor:-
    • Congress has many leaders who have great political experience such as Dr. Manmohan Singh, Ghulam Nabi Azad, Chidambaram, Renuka Choudhary, Shashi Tharoor etc.
    • A recent phenomenon of Anti-Modi wave is a big plus for INC (Indian National Congress).
    • INC already has a decent number of allies. And now it is trying to add more parties into its coalition. For example, Mamatha Banerjee of Trinamool Congress is already in talks with Sonia Gandhi of INC.
    • Recently Rahul Gandhi, the Prime Minister candidate of Indian National Congress is very active on social media and building his reputation.
    • Congress has most of the minorities’ support.
  • Against:-
    • People are not happy with the ruling of Congress in the past, i.e. from 2004 – 2014
    • Anti-Modi wave may not guarantee that people will not vote for the local BJP candidates, who have a good reputation.
    • People are increasingly hating dynasty politics. Just because Rahul Gandhi is from the Nehru family, people may not want him as their leader.
    • Rahul Gandhi has no significant achievements in his political career. Till now, all the Prime Minister candidates have strong political careers. Rahul Gandhi still needs to prove his abilities as a good leader. Congress has many wonderful leaders who have many years of political experience. Choosing Rahul Gandhi as PM candidate by sidelining other leaders is a big negative mark for Congress.

Third Front:-

  • People who are eagerly looking for an alternative to Congress and BJP will look forward to Third Front. It is the right time for the formation of the third front.
  • Several parties are actively working for the third front formation. TRS, TMC/AITC are some of them. TRS leader called other regional parties to form “Federal Front”.
  • But the road to the formation of the third front is not smooth. There are many doubts whether the formation of the third front is successful or not, because every leader is planning to lead the third front and almost no one is ready to join other leader-led coalition.
  • Political analysts opine that some parties are going for the third front to earn votes in their region. People may vote for these parties under the impression that their region will have power at the centre.
  • It seems third front parties may not agree on choosing the PM candidate.
  • There are unique challenges for the third front government such as disputes among leaders and among different parties due to different ideologies.
  • In the past, third front governments were formed and came into power in 1989 (National Front) & 1996 (United Front). But both these governments collapsed.
  • If the third front is formed successfully, and if it gets a good leader, democracy will be deepened. As state parties will have power at the centre, there will not be too much control at central government.
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